Analysis
As global attention remains focused on events in Egypt, Khadija Sharife
considers the role of the country's military in the uprising and its political
role in planning for the future.
The lessons for the authorities in Cairo echo those learned too late in
Tunis: cracking down on dissent is not so easy when social network sites and
citizen bloggers can gain a global audience in a matter of days. But how does
Egypt's low-profile military actually view the changes now sweeping the
country?
There was probably no way for the authorities to prevent the uprising of
millions of citizens in Egypt, a country characterized by staggering
inequality, human rights violations and corruption. This was especially true
after the uprising in neighboring Tunisia toppled the dictatorship of President
Zine el Abidine Ben Ali with such astonishing speed. In Cairo alone, there may
have been as many as two million protestors at some recent rallies. A nation of
usually non-confrontational people has awoken to reclaim the streets, their
human rights, and their dignity.
In many ways, the sustained resistance of the youth, drawing strength from
their courage and conviction, their rage and despair, is a genuine intifada
borne of the old and the new. Traditional methods of communication such as
pamphlets, faxes, landlines and 'stealth meetings' in homes, street corners and
mosques, have been augmented by virtual congregations on social networking
sites such as Facebook and Twitter.
These cyber-rallies have the obvious advantage of bypassing the dangers
inherent to geographically fixed meeting points. In an age where information
moves at the speed of light, the internet has become both a brawny social
muscle that can be collectively flexed, as well as a vehicle used by repressive
states to track and counter activists.
In Iran, where internet penetration rates are estimated at 35%, most service
has been disrupted during periods of unrest. However, the government has
usually allowed citizens to continue accessing Twitter as a means of
intelligence gathering to monitor protests.
In Tunisia, Facebook proved critical when 26-year-old Tunisian fruit vendor
Mohamed Bouazizi, who fatally set himself alight in protest at constant police
harassment, left a message on the networking site asking his mother for
forgiveness. After this was picked up by the Al Jazeera news network, global
awareness of the mounting Tunisian rebellion was generated, becoming
instrumental in the uprising gaining such swift momentum.
CITIZEN NARRATIVES VS. GOVERNMENT
BACKLASH
The extraordinary recent events in Tunisia and Egypt have been documented in
large part through the use of citizen-generated social media - a substitute for
traditional reporting following the suspension of many publications - allowing
ordinary people to 'narrate' their own struggles.
Moreover, traditional media outlets have often used citizen narratives as a
form of transmitting information, leveling the playing field in countries like
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel where news outlets are often heavily
influenced by, or in favour of, the regimes in power.
Unlike Tunisia, where over a third of the population has internet access,
penetration is much lower in Egypt at around 15%. And those accessing the
internet in Egypt, such as followers of the April 6 Facebook movement, face a
number of obstacles. Among the biggest of these is that operating licenses for
internet services are provided by the government, allowing them to access data
and know the locations of users, as well as being able to cut connectivity
without prior warning.
This makes life very difficult for people such as Wael Ghonim, Google's head
of marketing for the Middle East and North Africa. Ghonim was released on
Monday having spent a week in custody after attending a protest organised by
the April 6 movement on 25 January. He rejoined protests in Tahrir Square and
went straight back on Twitter.
As in Tunisia, where leaked cables provided by WikiLeaks disclosed that the
US did not consider Ben Ali an 'ally' and preferred his removal from power,
Washington has long been collaborating with key leaders from the April 6
movement. The WikiLeaks cables confirmed a change of government in Egypt was
predicted in 2011, allowing for negotiations with other parties.
Generally portrayed by the American media as the lesser of two possible
evils, President Hosni Mubarak's rule has long been justified by the US as a
bastion against militant Islam. But in recent years, bloggers pushing for
democratic change have peeled back the myth of the regime. One of Egypt's
best-known English-language bloggers, Sandmonkey, was arrested on 2 February
while delivering medical supplies to Tahrir Square. He claims he was then
roughed up in prison and his blog suspended until his release the next day.
ACTIVISTS CAN ACHIEVE GLOBAL PROFILES
In one of his previous blog posts, he described his extreme fatigue, having
been on the run for days. He wrote how 'the situation here is bleak to say the
least. It didn't start out that way. On Tuesday January 25 it all started
peacefully, and against all odds, we succeeded to gather hundreds of thousands
and get them into Tahrir Square, despite being attacked by anti-riot police who
are using sticks, tear gas and rubber bullets against us.'
Sandmonkey went on to write: 'I was shot at twice that day, [once] with a
semi-automatic by a dude in a car that we, the people, took joy in pummeling.
The government announced that all prisons were breached, and that the prisoners
somehow managed to get weapons and do nothing but randomly attack people. One
day we had organized thugs in uniforms firing at us, and the next day they
disappeared and were replaced by organized thugs without uniforms firing at us.
Somehow the people never made the connection.'
Ahmed Maher, a leader of the April 6 movement whose protest plans have been
regularly intercepted by security agents, was also presumed to have been
arrested or detained. In an interview with Maher on 2 February, Wired magazine
learned he had not been arrested, but would not say whether or not he had been
roughed up by the police.
Rewind two years. On 6 February 2009, Philip Rizk, an Egyptian-German
filmmaker, was abducted from a police station by secret service agents in the
city of Qalyubia, north of Cairo. Rizk had been arrested while campaigning for
humanitarian support to Gaza. He claims he was taken to a secret location three
floors beneath the surface in unidentified facilities and constantly
interrogated about 'my activism, my writing, everything.' He was released after
being held for four days.
In all likelihood, Rizk may not have been freed so soon, if at all, had his
friends and colleagues not mounted an international campaign that caught the
attention of the New York Times. Such abductions are par for the course in
Egypt, where detainees are routinely held without trial or access to legal representation.
WHAT IS THE PRESENT ROLE OF EGYPT'S
MILITARY?
Under the guise of 'reform' at the state level, the military has further
embedded itself within Egypt's newly appointed cabinet. When asked about the
elevation to vice president of Omar Sulieman, Egypt's former chief of
intelligence and Mubarak's right-hand man, Rizk told The Africa Report that
'Egyptians understand this for what it is. It represents no change. As soon as
the announcement was made, protestors began chanting against Sulieman, identified
as a man of the regime.'
The military has been portrayed by international media as sympathetic, or
even protective of the protestors. But very little is known about who controls
the armed forces.
Egypt specialist Joshua Stacher of Kent State University recently told CNN
that 'the military's refusal to act is a highly political act which shows that
it is allowing the Egyptian regime to reconstitute itself at the top and is
highly, utterly against the protesters.'
But will the US listen? If the military is the power backing the regime, and
is financed annually to the tune of $1.3bn by the US government - the US's
second largest aid recipient in the world, after Israel - who is responsible
for Mubarak's dictatorship?
According to Na'eem Jeenah, executive director of the Johannesburg-based
think tank Afro-Middle East Centre, 'the whole notion that we've been exposed
to recently of these soldiers as benevolent protectors is a myth. In the lower
and middle ranks, there is certainly potential for soldiers to switch sides.
But it has been a move by those on top to provide a good image of the military,
and those from below, who want to win over the soldiers. Some thought it was a
great thing when the cabinet was dissolved, but what we're really seeing is the
removal of business people and the entrenchment of the military, to ensure that
they have the control in the new government.'
Jeenah told The Africa Report that the military had long been in control of
key sectors of the country's political economy. In his view, it has 'a well
designed plan to pace the process and timing of change, to secure the army's
role in government and the economy.'
'Once the sun sets,' said Jeenah, 'the army will go in and clean up the
protestors.'
Even without its figurehead, the Mubarak machinery will be able to ensure
the continuation of the same repressive and brutal tactics. Social media can
act as the watchdog, when and if the Egyptian government allows it, but who in
Egypt will respond to the watchdog?
* This article was originally published by The Africa Report.
